A new memo sent by Hillary Clinton campaign manager Robby Mook declares Clinton “has many paths to 270 electoral votes, while Donald Trump has very few” – he’s right, but Trump’s potential path to victory looks a bit wider than it did a month ago.
The race across the battleground states has tightened considerably, according to Fox News projections released Tuesday.
While Clinton still has the overall Electoral College advantage, the Fox News Electoral Scorecard shows the race between Clinton and Donald Trump becoming more competitive in New Hampshire, Colorado and even Minnesota – and Trump gaining the edge in Iowa.
- New Hampshire is now rated as “toss-up,” after previously having been rated a “lean” Democrat state.
- Colorado also is now rated as “toss-up,” after previously having been rated “lean” Democrat.
- Minnesota is now rated as “lean” Democrat, after having been rated “solid” for the Democrats.
- And Iowa is now rated as “lean” Republican after having been rated a “toss-up.”
In New Hampshire, both campaigns are fiercely fighting for the state’s mere four Electoral College votes. Clinton had held a lead in the state, but Trump looks to have closed the gap.
Clinton also had long looked to be comfortably ahead in Colorado, but she failed to lock the state down. Her campaign even pulled down TV ads in the state. Clinton still has some advantages in the Centennial State, but polls show a tightened race – one recent poll showed Trump ahead.
Meanwhile, Trump’s polling lead in Iowa, a state with a lot of working-class white voters, has grown more comfortable. The state has gone Democratic in five of the last six presidential elections, but it looks friendlier to Trump than most of the other battleground states.
Minnesota still looks like a state that the Democrats can hold, but Trump appears to have a small chance of expanding the map into this long solidly blue state.
Other battlegrounds — North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Nevada, Georgia, and Arizona — are all still rated as “toss-ups” in the latest projections.
And while polls have tightened in Virginia, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, Clinton continues to have an edge in all of them.
Overall, Clinton’s electoral edge remains significant.
If Clinton wins the states rated “solid” Democrat along with the states rated as leaning in her direction, she’d have 260 electoral votes.
If Trump wins the “solid” Republican states along with the states currently seen as leaning in his direction, he’d come away with 170 electoral votes.
Neither candidate, though, reaches the 270 electoral votes needed to win the 2016 presidential election without winning some of the toss-up states, which hold 108 electoral votes.